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How Does Seasonality Impact Maximize Conversion Value Bidding Strategy in Google Ads?

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Summary

Seasonality can significantly impact the performance of the Maximize Conversion Value bidding strategy in Google Ads. This automated, value-based bidding strategy relies on historical data and machine learning to predict and optimize for conversion values. However, during periods of seasonal variation, such as holidays, sales, or special events, these predictions may not fully align with real-time changes in user behavior, requiring advertisers to adjust their settings or implement appropriate tools to maintain optimal campaign performance.

Understanding Maximize Conversion Value Bidding

The Maximize Conversion Value bidding strategy in Google Ads uses machine learning to optimize your campaign for the highest total conversion value within your budget. This strategy prioritizes conversions that generate the most revenue or business value based on historical data [Google Ads Help, 2023].

How Seasonality Affects This Strategy

Seasonality refers to predictable changes in consumer behavior during specific time periods, such as holidays (e.g., Black Friday, Christmas), seasonal trends (e.g., summer or winter shopping), or event-driven periods (e.g., product launches, annual sales).

Because Maximize Conversion Value relies on historical data and real-time signals, it may take time for the algorithm to adjust to sudden spikes or drops in demand. This can result in:

  • Underperformance: If the algorithm underestimates increased demand, it may allocate budgets too conservatively.
  • Overestimation: If the spike is short-lived, the algorithm might overspend, targeting conversion opportunities that diminish quickly.

Strategies to Manage Seasonality with Maximize Conversion Value

1. Use Google Ads Seasonality Adjustments

Google Ads provides a specific tool called Seasonality Adjustments. This feature lets you inform the system about expected changes in conversion rates during a defined time window. For example, if you know your conversion rates will double during a holiday promotion, you can set a seasonality adjustment to ensure the algorithm bids more aggressively during that period [Seasonality Adjustments Guide, 2023].

Steps to apply seasonality adjustments:

  1. Go to Tools & settings in your Google Ads account.
  2. Navigate to Bid strategies > Advanced controls.
  3. Set the date range and expected conversion rate changes.

2. Leverage Campaign Experiments

Running a Google Ads Campaign Experiment helps you test different bidding strategies and seasonal adjustments without fully committing to changes across your entire campaign. For instance, you can experiment with a higher target return on ad spend (ROAS) or increased budgets to evaluate their impact during a seasonal event [Campaign Experiments Overview, 2023].

3. Monitor Performance Metrics Closely

During periods of seasonal activity, it’s crucial to frequently monitor key metrics such as:

  • Cost per Conversion: Ensure your cost aligns with your expected profitability.
  • Conversion Value: Track whether the total revenue justifies the spend.
  • Impression Share: Check if your ads are capturing sufficient market share during peak periods.

Regular monitoring allows you to make manual adjustments when necessary, such as increasing budgets or modifying ad creatives to align with user intent.

4. Adjust Budgets Proactively

Seasonal spikes in demand often require higher budgets to fully capitalize on increased traffic. Ensure your daily campaign budgets are sufficient to handle the anticipated surge in clicks and conversions. For example, during Black Friday, doubling or tripling your budget might be necessary to maximize your conversion value.

5. Use Remarketing and Audience Segmentation

Combining Maximize Conversion Value with remarketing lists for search ads (RLSA) can help prioritize high-value audiences during seasonal campaigns. Targeting previous customers or high-intent users ensures your budget is spent on those most likely to convert [Remarketing Lists for Search Ads, 2023].

Example: Black Friday Campaign

Consider a retailer running a Black Friday sale:

  • Scenario: Historical data shows a 3x increase in conversion rates during this period.
  • Action: The advertiser sets a seasonality adjustment to increase conversion rate expectations by 200% for the Black Friday weekend.
  • Result: The Maximize Conversion Value strategy bids more aggressively, allocating the budget to high-value conversions during the promotion.

Limitations of Seasonality Adjustments

While tools like seasonality adjustments are effective, they should only be used for short-term changes (1–7 days). The system already accounts for long-term trends, so manual adjustments over extended periods may disrupt algorithmic learning [Best Practices for Smart Bidding, 2023].

Conclusion

Seasonality can pose challenges to the Maximize Conversion Value bidding strategy due to its reliance on historical data and predictive algorithms. To address these challenges, advertisers should use tools like seasonality adjustments, experiment with bidding strategies, monitor metrics closely, and adjust budgets proactively. Employing these strategies ensures campaigns remain competitive and profitable during seasonal peaks.

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